Instant poll finds Dion clear debate winner
French-speaking Canadians surveyed by Ipsos Reid immediately after Wednesday's debate said the Liberal Leader won the night, and one in five viewers say they changed their mind
TORONTO — Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion clearly prevailed in the French-language leaders' debate, according to viewers surveyed by Ipsos Reid immediately after Wednesday's telecast.
The online poll found 40 per cent of voters said Mr. Dion won the debate, compared with 24 per cent who gave the contest to Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper came in at 16 per cent, NDP Leader Jack Layton at 11 per cent, and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May at just 1 per cent.
A Crop poll for La Presse with a smaller sample size found Mr. Dion ranked second, trailing Mr. Duceppe by only 6 per cent among viewers who rated their performance as "excellent" or "very good." Only 18 per cent said Mr. Harper had won the debate.
While there was no knock-out punch, Mr. Dion was at ease in his native tongue and set the agenda by promising he would implement a five-point economic action plan within 30 days of becoming prime minister. He may have also benefited from low expectations after a rocky campaign plagued by poor polling numbers.
Liberal leader Stephane Dion speaks during the French language debate at the National Arts Centre in Ottawa Wednesday. (Chris Wattie/AFP/Getty Images)
Videos
Darrell Bricker of Ipsos Reid said a pre-debate poll found most voters expected Mr. Dion to do very poorly, so even a moderately credible performance had significant impact on post-debate results. Likewise, Mr. Harper was expected to "wipe up the floor" with everyone there save for Mr. Duceppe, he said.
"Dion outperformed expectations and Harper underperformed against expectations," said Mr. Bricker, adding that it reminded him of the 1988 free trade debates in which then-Liberal leader John Turner defied low expectations by going toe-to-toe with Brian Mulroney.
The Ipsos Reid poll found 36 per cent of viewers rated Mr. Dion as the leader who sounds and acts most like a prime minister, ahead of Mr. Harper at 31 per cent. One in five respondents – 20 per cent – said they had changed their mind about who to vote for as a result of viewing the debate.
The debate, which took place at the National Arts Centre in Ottawa, was seen as critical to Mr. Harper's effort to win a majority government and to Mr. Dion's efforts to revive the faltering Liberal campaign. The bout saw Mr. Harper raked over the coals, smiling thinly as his opponents did most of the talking. The multipronged barrage appeared to leave the Conservative Leader resigned to having to weather the onslaught.
Mr. Bricker said Mr. Dion's performance may end up benefiting the Bloc by shaking those soft nationalists on the fence who were toying with a vote for the Conservatives.
"What he's done is made them maybe think again about voting for Duceppe. It sets up a really interesting tail-end to the campaign in Quebec," he said.
Other findings:
• 41 per cent of voters said Mr. Dion offered the best policies and ideas during the debate. In second was Mr. Duceppe at 22 per cent, Mr. Layton at 19 per cent, Mr. Harper at 13 per cent and Ms. May at 1 per cent.
• Mr. Layton was ranked most likeable and the person voters would most like to go out with for a beer or coffee. Mr. Layton was also viewed to be the most visually attractive (33 per cent), following by Mr. Duceppe at 22 per cent, Mr. Dion at 19 per cent, Mr. Harper at 15 per cent and Ms. May at 5 per cent.
Christian Leuprecht, who teaches political science at Kingston's Royal Military College of Canada, said he doesn't expect the debate to change Mr. Dion's fortunes in Quebec, where he is widely viewed as a Chrétien Liberal and a key player behind the Clarity Act.
Mr. Leuprecht said he expects Mr. Harper to do especially well in rural Quebec and that recent polls showing a drop in Tory support in the province reflect an urban bias that may not be mirrored in election day results. The unprecedented support for the NDP in Quebec, he added, may make like difficult for the Liberals and even the Bloc, regardless of whether it translates into seats for Mr. Layton.
Ipsos Reid polled a total of 637 French-speaking Canadian voters – 556 of them in Quebec – online immediately after the debate. The results are considered accurate plus-or-minus 3.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's age, sex, regional and party support composition reflects that of the actual French-speaking voter population. The sample was drawn from a pre-recruited panel of 12,000 voters from Ipsos Reid's internet panel.
Summary: This article talks about the French language debate between Mr Harper, Mr Dion, Mr Duceppe and Ms May that took place on October 1, 2008. The results from the polling show that 40% of voters felt that Mr Dion had won. One in five respondents said they had changed their mind about who to vote for after watching the debate.
Questions to Think About:
1. All of the people polled were French Canadians. How do you think this affected the results of the poll?
2. How important are debates in Canadian elections?
3. Which political leader do you think has the best qualities to be the Prime Minister?
This article has a link to our course topic because our elections are an important part of Canadian history.
15 comments:
In my opinion i would have voted for the Green Party because by saying let's have no cars just buses is good for our planet and i think we need that because we are soon going to suffer from Global Warming. Any way good post and it was very interesting to learn that my Party " The Green Party only have 1 percent of votes for winning the debate. Good Job
THAT SOME PEOPLE CHANGE THE DECITION FOR WHOM THEIR ARE GOING TO VOTE AND THE OTHER 40% THINK MR.DION ITS ALREADY GOING TO WIN.
In my oppinion i think that Mr.dion is not a leader we should have. Mr. Harper is also one i think is not a good leader. If i had to pick a party it would be the green party. I like what the green party stands for and how we should help the enviornment.They care about what our lives and our kids life's are going to be like. The green party reminds me of the first primeinister Sir John A. McDonald. Not about the envornment but about leader ship. John A. McDonald was a true leader and also the first primeinister who helped confederation in a huge way.
I think they should think about the french speaking people in canada. Mr Dion won by a lot 40%. The best guy to be priminster soild be fair to everyone in canada. The debates are really important to all around Canada
They were seeing ho was going to win the debate,
they make a vote program and mr. dion has already the 40% so i think he won the liberaty campain.
I think the reason Mr.Dion won was because he is good at french so he seemed like the best canidate to win the debate. Dion did win the debate but I don't think he is the best fit for priminister, for one thing he is trying to implement a new tax!! We have enough taxes to pay from the GST to the PST. I think that they should start cutting taxes before implementing new ones. Anywase I think Mr.Harper won the english language debate and he did a very good job because it was four on one for the debates and he held out very well. Good Job Luc Good post!!
I think that having all the being poled being french Canadian people makes it a realy biased vote. In my opinion I think that the people in the poling station should have asked for the vote of some English speaking people. Also since Mr. Dion is a french Canadian he is probibly able to get other french Canadians on his side.
This was a good article to pick good job.
I think that although stephan dion seemed to win the debate (partly because the adiance was or could speek french) I think that conservituves (who only came about 3rd) should win because if the minimum wage is increased than compinies will have two chosies to leave the cuntrie or go bankrupt because most compinies can't afford to pay there employes $10 as minimum wage. Also since steven harper is not french he will not be able to debate as well as he can in french
I think the reason Mr Dion won was beacause the majority of people who listened to the debate were probably french Canadian. Many people from around Canada probably didnt understand becasue it was in french. Many English speaking Canadians probably watched the English debate on October 2nd. I think that Mr Harper will win the elction. I think that Mr Dion is not capable of being Prime Minister, becasue when your up in the big chair and your making big decissions, Mr Dion will not be able to make the right choise.
This debate was one of the most important and interesting debate. This is where the representative leaders of citizens debated about their wills and how they are right leader for Canadians. First of all I would like to comment on the poll. I believe that this poll can be biased. In my opinion, the French Canadians will tend to vote for the running candidite from Quebec, or Stephen Dion since he is French Canadian also.
This debate was a important event for the running candidites to show their motivation, and for Canadian Citizens to understand them better.
Questions to Think About:
1. All of the people polled were French Canadians. How do you think this affected the results of the poll?
Well.. i think this affected the result because French Canadians might want Mr.Dion to win and become the Prime Minister, because there might a biased vote. Since Mr.Dion speaks french and he's a French Canadians.
2. How important are debates in Canadian elections?
Is important becuse it changes the point of view that people think of each different party that is joining and what each and different party want to do about this country.
3. Which political leader do you think has the best qualities to be the Prime Minister?
I think i would want the green party to win and become the Prime Minister because no car just buses helps our enviroment and it would help Global Warming. Because the main cause of Global Warming is waste gas going up to our atmossphere.
I did not see the vote but I heard that Dion did very well. That is quite a good accomplishment because he's a french speeking candidate and that is hard to convince people in English when he can hardly speak the language himself. I also like what the green party is trying do, from what I've heard the green party are an envoromental group. Everything we try to do to help the enviroment is a very good start. If I was 18 they would have won my vote.
Mr. Dion had a very good in the vote because one of the reasons the Green Party is very big about the enviorment and lots of people are scared of global warming and he is a very good candidate for this and he is also a french speeker which gives him alot of extra votes for that from french canadians.
1. All of the people polled were French Canadians. How do you think this affected the results of the poll?
The results of the poll were affected because most French Canadians are in favour of becoming and independat country and this is exactly the main goal of the Bloc Quebequois.
2. How important are debates in Canadian elections?
Debates are key in election because it shows what parties represent and want to do if they were to be the government. This makes people decide wht they want to vote for depending on how their beliefs relater to those of the running parties.
3. Which political leader do you think has the best qualities to be the Prime Minister?
I think that Jack Layton, the NDP leader has the best qulalities to be Prime Minister because he is the most passionate about his policies and he cares very much for canadian citizens. He wants to get all canadians fully employed and be part of a union.
Post a Comment